Major Research Initiative

 Climate Adaptation Research

Multi-year investigation into how the World can develop policies to facilitate human adaptation to climate change.

Initiative, to be managed by Pilgrims Publishing Technology Policy Program.

It will encompass a broad spectrum of issues affecting all sectors and all levels; agriculture, surface and groundwater, coastal and marine ecosystems, public health, and how the use of all land types effect climate.

Clearly, adaptation will be as crucial to managing climate change as mitigation. To date, however, research on adaptation policy is both limited and spread to thinly. The work will bring a deeper and more coherent approach to the subject via co-operational research.

Climate Change Essentials

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) - Planet Trend Monitoring

Since the beginning of the industrial age, the overall concentration of CO₂ has increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 370 parts per million (ppm). Earths normal atmospheric level of: Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) is just 0.04%.

CO₂ has increased by about 25% over the last 50 years, about 0.01% of the total volume of global CO₂.

50% (0.005%) of the total volume of extra  CO₂ has already been absorbed by the Oceans of the world.

Scientific studies indicate that CO₂ is one of several gases that trap heat near the surface of the earth. Some scientists have concluded that increases in the abundance of CO₂ will generate an increase in the globally averaged temperature of earth's atmosphere.

Current research indicates that the anticipated changes that might result from an increase in atmospheric CO₂ are a very complicated challenge. Computer models include changes to ocean currents and to the jet stream that cause many parts of the Earth to Cool while other part of the world experience an average yearly temperature increase.

Thus, a more correct term for this "phenomenon" is "climate change" not global warming. Even with extensive measurements of CO₂ emissions, the processes that govern the carbon cycle are not very well understood. 

Human activities continue to release a slowly increasing amount of CO₂ into the atmosphere. However, at the same time, measurements of atmospheric CO₂ vary massively from year to year.

Without a better understanding of these variations, scientists will have difficulty predicting how the atmosphere will respond currently and in the future.

The contiguous Total Solar Irradiance database extends from late 1978 to the present, covering more than two sunspot cycles, and one solar magnetic activity cycle. It is comprised of many good observations of seven independent satellite experiments: Nimbus7/ERB, SMM/ACRIM1, ERBS/ERBE, UARS/ ACRIM2, SOHO/VIRGO, ACRIMSAT/ ACRIM3 and SORCE/TIM.

A composite database combining these results using overlapping in-flight comparisons has begun to provide useful information for both solar physics and climate change investigations.

More attention from decision makers is imperative to accommodate climate trends that are already underway.

The characteristics and variability of the radiation emitted by the Sun are of overriding importance to all life on Earth. The Earth’s weather and climate regime is determined by the Total Solar Irradiance and its interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans and landmasses. Evidence from paleo-climate data and the subtle long term variations of Total Solar Irradiance caused by periodic changes in the Earth's orbit (milankovich cycles) demonstrate the dominance of Total Solar Irradiance in climate change on time scales between 20 years and 10,000 years. Total Solar Irradiance monitoring, cosmogenic isotope analyses and correlative climate data indicate that variations of the Total Solar Irradiance received by earth has been the most significant climate change factor (natural force) during the current inter-glacial period (i.e. last 10,000 years.). Phenomenological analyses of Total Solar Irradiance monitoring results during the past three decades, and Total Solar Irradiance proxies during the past 400 years and the records of surface temperature show that Total Solar Irradiance variation has been the preeminent dominant force for climate change during the current industrial era. The periodic character of the Total Solar Irradiance record indicates that Solar effect on climate change will be the most dominant and variable contributor to climate change in the future.

Monitoring Total Solar Irradiance variability is clearly the most important component of climate change research, particularly in the context of understanding the relative force of natural and anthropogenic processes. The requirements for long-term, climate Total Solar Irradiance database can be inferred from a recent Research Council study which concluded that gradual variations in solar luminosity of as little as 0.25 % was the most likely effect that created the "little ice age" that persisted in varying degree from the 14^th to the mid 19^th centuries. A century-long Total Solar Irradiance database will have to be calibrated by either precision or accuracy to within a fraction of this value to be of any real use in assessing the magnitude of solar heating. The current Total Solar Irradiance database is shown above.

Understanding Earths - Solar Climate Relationship

Average World Heat Flow for Last 10,000 Years

Recent Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change Reported the key impacts that are probably inevitable for planet Earth are:

• Sea level rise of 1-2 feet in the next 100 yeras
• Decreased snowfall, winter floods, and severe droughts
• Increase in natural woodland fires, and species extinctions
• Summer heat waves of escalating duration and concentration
• Loss of arable land due to more flooding type erosion
• Population relocation to more temperate areas of the world

The Pilgrims Publishing Initiative will target four major gaps in existing knowledge, and will target areas for research like:

• quantification of risks that communities and economic sectors face in the wake of change and increased weather variability.
• identification of how individuals (people) and industries - are likely to adapt in the absence of government intervention.
• to find specific strategies and activities that are likely to call for a role for government to reduce long term habitat damage.
• find a framework to help decision makers to understand the strategies and activities we think are "must-have global options"

Initial funding for the research will total nearly £14 million and be provided by both private foundations and EU Governments.

As we work to construct policies that can prevent climate change, it is only practical to examine ways to assist such changing global environments.

Of the many climate laws pending around the world, only a handful mention adaptation, and only as an afterthought - this must change.

Initiative will build on our already substantial leadership in climate understanding, and will establish Pilgrims Publishing as a global center on adaptation research.

 THE  INSIDE  TRACK